Since the 2001 terrorist attacks, over seven billion passengers have gone through US airport security and not a single terrorist has been caught!

For clarification, I am not a “security expert”; however, I am a recently retired airline pilot with over 35 years of experience going through security screening thousands of times at hundreds of airports around the world. Every time I was in command of an aircraft, I was also the official security coordinator of that flight. There’s no argument from me that my view of credible airport security is worlds apart from that of the political bureaucrats wasting $billions on airline/airport security which – effectively – does little more than make airline passengers “feel” safer.  

Let’s look at some of the ugly facts:

Just over nine years ago, 19 terrorists under the auspices of a hijacking, commandeered four US airliners, caused the deaths of over three thousand innocent people and headed our country into one of our worst economic downturns.

911 likely would have never occurred except for FAA pilot procedures which were in effect on that fateful day. What is virtually unmentioned by the media and unknown by the public, is up until September 11, 2001, it was a policy for pilots, as a last resort, to allow a hijacker access to the cockpit. Note: Cockpit doors, at that time, albeit of weaker construction than today, were securely locked. The fact is, the 911 hijackers had no weapons beyond some knives. If the “policy” then was as it is today, those 19 hijackers would likely have never gained access to the cockpits, and the world we now know would have been unbelievably different.

Unfortunately, but in typical, government, knee-jerk reaction, post-911, airline passengers have been saddled with ever-growing security procedures which have gone from confiscating finger nail clippers to the recent naked body x-rays and sexually groping pat downs.

Since 911, the only two terrorist threats to US airlines were the shoe bomber (December 2001) and the underwear bomber (December 2009). Both of these individuals rang every bell there was to say, “Look I am a terrorist!” Both of these terrorists came from foreign airports and passed through security checks which should have stopped them long before they walked onto airliners. It should be noted these new full body scanners, would not have singled out either of these two individuals that checked in for international flights with one-way tickets purchased with cash and no luggage! Furthermore, it was the passengers and flight attendants who stopped these would-be bombers, not the TSA!  

Airline travel has and will always involve some risk to it. In the US, where approximately two million people board planes every day, there has been only one fatal airline crash in the last three years (regional carrier in Buffalo, NY). This compares with approximately 35,000 people losing their lives each year on the highway and half that many murders each year.

One of the best known terrorist targets, Israel’s El Al airline, has developed one of the most successful security programs in the world. El Al’s security starts before anyone approaches the airport screening lines and incorporates layers of verification using well-trained, security professionals.

It’s absurd to focus 100% of our screening resources on 100% of the passengers when real life screening should focus on the 5-10% who behave suspiciously.

Are those in control of airport security so dumb as to think a – real – terrorist would risk exposure by going through the larger, more secure airports?

Do any of the TSA so-called experts understand any wannabe terrorist can simply avoid all of the hyperbole security by checking in at any one of hundreds of smaller airports that have no body scanners and typically do not do unreasonable pat-downs to include the touching of private body parts? And then, connect directly to any major airport terminal gate they choose without any additional screening?

·         Do these TSA experts accept that weapons routinely get undiscovered by the TSA agents watching the baggage go by on the conveyer belts?

·         Do these TSA experts realize how easily a well trained terrorist could hide broken-down weapons and even explosives in their carry-on luggage?

While we waste our resources groping and harassing millions of innocent families going on family vacations, we completely miss the focus on those who should be more thoroughly scrutinized.

Our military is successfully using dogs to sniff out explosives. Customs agents routinely walk the international airports with drug sniffing dogs.

·         Wouldn’t our skies be safer if we spent our tax dollars on training dogs to discover explosives and have them work throughout the airports searching out potential threats?

·         Wouldn’t our skies be safer if connecting passengers arriving from the smaller, less secure airports had some type of secondary screening before walking across the concourse to connect to an international flight?

·         Wouldn’t our skies be safer if we used the security procedures employed by some foreign countries and had layers of well-trained experts who, by asking simple questions can recognize those who appear suspicious?

Like all airline pilots, employees and passengers, I want and expect “real” airport/airline security. Unfortunately, what we have today is little more than a TSA government jobs program which is simply out of control wasting $billions and giving power to TSA personnel to grope your body and harass anyone they choose without legitimate reasons or repercussions for doing it.

AirlineFinancials.com, estimates the five US passenger airlines with European operations are collectively losing $35.8 million in revenue per day since Friday, April 16 (losses for Thursday, April 15 and the start of the European shut-down are estimated at $17 million). 

After accounting for savings from unused fuel, landing fees not paid, lower labor costs, less maintenance, etc. the estimated operating loss for all five airlines comes to approximately $21.9 million per day with half that amount for Thursday.

Because Delta has the highest amount of traffic to/from the closed European airports, they will incur the largest losses with United not far behind.

As long as European airports remain closed, AirlineFinancials.com estimates the following daily losses for each of the US airlines.

Ø  Delta (DAL) - $10.4 million loss in revenue with an operating loss of $6.5 million.

Ø  United (UAUA) - $8.4 million loss in revenue with an operating loss of $5.2 million.

Ø  American (AMR) - $7.6 million loss in revenue with an operating loss of $4.6 million.

Ø  Continental (CAL) - $5.6 million loss in revenue with an operating loss of $3.4 million.

Ø  US Airways (LCC) - $3.7 million loss in revenue with an operating loss of $2.2 million.

In addition to the above, JetBlue (JBLU) is likely losing a relatively small amount of passenger feed to/from their European partners.

Is airline management finally “getting it” and acting responsible? For American (AMR) and JetBlue (JBLU), based on last week’s announcement, the answer is yes! At least this time!

AirlineFinancials.com estimates the new “interline ticketing agreement” announced last week will add at least $14 million to JetBlue and $55 million to American’s operating income with virtually no increase in costs. These amounts could easily double as American will connect 12 of their popular international destinations with 18 JetBlue US domestic airports.

For year 2009

At New York’s JFK airport, JetBlue, by far, had the largest market share with 41.7% of the passenger traffic. Delta (DAL) was #2 holding 19.8%. American was #3 with 14.1%.

At Boston’s airport, JetBlue once again had the highest market share with 17.4% of the passenger traffic. American was #2 at 15.1%.

At Washington DC’s Regan airport, US Airways was #1 with 22.3% of the passenger traffic. American was #2 at 13.5%. JetBlue plans to start operations at DCA later this year.

Nantucket   [79]

Burlington   [477]

Buffalo   [1,260]

Denver   [351]

Houston   [224]

Washington Dulles   [851]

Jacksonville   [349]

New Orleans   [381]

West Palm Beach   [658]

Portland, OR   [130]

Phoenix   [236]

Portland, ME   [469]

Richmond   [308]

Rochester   [429]

Fort Meyers   [622]

Salt Lake City   [115]

Sarasota   [192]

Syracuse   [415]

Collectively, the daily average JetBlue one-way passenger traffic from all of the cities above to New York JFK and/or Boston was 7,547.

As part of the “interline ticketing agreement”, the following are the American international destinations that JetBlue passengers will be able to connect with:

Barcelona, Spain

Brussels, Belgium

Paris, France  

Buenos Aires, Argentina 

Rome, Italy  

Sao Paulo, Brazil 

London, UK 

Madrid, Spain

Manchester, UK

Milan, Italy

Tokyo, Japan

Zurich, Switzerland

The reality of the industry is that without this American-JetBlue ticketing agreement, international passengers between any of the destinations above would likely chose Delta, United (UAUA), Continental, or US Airways for their travel opposed to using JetBlue or American.

JetBlue now becomes a stronger domestic competitor by providing connecting service to American’s international destinations. Without this agreement, the only way for American to compete for passenger traffic from the JetBlue cities above would require American to add costly domestic routes that would only drive fares lower due to unnecessary additional capacity.

AirlineFinancials.com estimates for each one percent increase in JetBlue’s passenger traffic that is driven by American’s international connections will add $6.9 million to JetBlue’s operating income and four times that amount for American. This additional income comes at virtually no increase in costs to either airline.  

Conclusion- Over just the past two years, US airlines have lost approximately $9 billion. Even what once were the most successful and low cost airlines, have become more-or-less break-even for profits.

Contrary to popular belief and political efforts, these industry losses did not come from costs that were too high. The losses came from not enough revenue.

The fact is while the real cost for new aircraft, real estate, terminal rents, fuel, taxes, etc. has easily kept up with inflation. Current airfares are more-or-less what they were 25 years ago. If airfares were adjusted for normal inflation, fares would be approximately twice what they currently are.

As I have frequently stated: “More focus needs to be on making the industry better and not just cheaper.” The only way for this to occur is for the airline industry to stop adding capacity until there is enough demand at a high enough fare to operate profitably.

This new deal between American and JetBlue is a positive move in that direction and makes both airlines stronger.